The Moscow News asked a panel of experts to predict Russia’s year of living dangerously in 2010
Russians will be hoping for a restful holiday after a traumatic year of political and social turmoil. It was a year when Moscow was buffeted by terrorist attacks, a heat wave, the departure of long-term mayor Yury Luzhkov and a spate of race riots.
A year ago, in December 2009, The Moscow News asked a panel of experts to predict the main events of 2010 – and it turns out they got 70 per cent right.
The two bombs which exploded in the Moscow metro on March 29, killing 40 people, were a frightening, tragic reminder of the continued volatility that plagues Russia's North Caucasus and affects the rest of the country.
Sergei Markedonov, of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, told The Moscow News at the end of 2009 that "as long as kickbacks are the chief determining factors of policy, nothing is going to change [there]".
The violence escalated in the region as regular bombings took place, including 19 killed in an explosion in a market in Vladikavkaz in September and an attack on the Chechen parliament in Grozny in October.
Nationalist sentiment then exploded in Moscow in December as nationalists clashed with Caucasus natives over the killing of a Spartak football fan, Yegor Svidorov.
A hot summer
Russia was hit by soaring, record temperatures in July and August, which destroyed more than one-third of Russia's harvest and forced Muscovites to flee the city from dense smog caused by peat fires.
The disaster also turned the heat up on Luzhkov, who was criticised for not returning from holiday to battle the problem. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, took to the skies to fight the blaze himself.
Luzhkov going, going, gone
President Dmitry Medvedev responded by firing Luzhkov, as widely predicted. Our expert, Vladimir Pribylovsky, of the Panorama think tank, had said he could depart as early as February or March.
Pribylovsky did not manage to predict Luzhkov's successor, however, as former Kremlin chief of staff Sergei Sobyanin was brought in to fill Luzhkov's boots.
Spot on
The Moscow News experts were almost 100 per cent correct when predicting the major international trends in 2010.
Russia and the US signed a new START treaty, though it still awaits ratification by the US Congress, as Fyodor Lyukanov, of Russia in Global Affairs, predicted.
Spy scandal
Russia and the West reignited Cold War-like tensions as 10 sleeper spies were caught in the US. A Soviet-style spy swap was organised in Vienna as the spooks arrived home to medals and a sing-along session with Putin.
But it was attractive agent Anna Chapman who caught the most attention, raising her public profile by stripping for men's magazine Maxim.
Oil boost
Russia's economy was hit by the fires, which shaved an estimated 1 per cent off GDP and pushed food staple prices up.
But the government's budget was boosted by a higher-than-expected oil price, which reached $90 a barrel last week, and is expected to average $75 a barrel for the year.
Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Uralsib, only slightly underestimated the oil price rise, seeing a recovery from $60 per barrel oil in 2009 to $71.50 for 2010.
But in their predictions from a year ago, Weafer and Renaissance Capital's Roland Nash were a tad optimistic on Russia's stock market.
The RTS was trading at 1,738 on Monday, some way short of Nash's target of 1,900 and Uralsib's projection of 1,950.
Sports scores
Russia's Winter Olympics team slipped up in Vancouver, causing an investigation into the shortage of medals as even the hockey team failed to challenge for honours.
Athletes returned with 15 medals and only three golds, some way short of the target of medals in 28 events set by Leonid Tyagachyov, head of the Russian Olympic Committee. A month after the disappointing performance, Tyagachyov resigned his post.
The country's biggest victory came off the field, as Russia won the right to host the football World Cup in 2018.
Top of the pops
Alexei Mazhayev of Intermedia Agency failed to hit the right notes with his prediction that Dasha Luxe would be the up-and-coming music star of the year. That honour arguably fell to Pyotr Nalich, who represented Russia at Eurovision.
by Ed Bentley
For a full list of The Moscow News' predictions for 2010, go to: www.themoscownews.com
Megjegyzések
Megjegyzés küldése