China-Russia relations are casting a shadow over the Northern Territories issue
POINT OF VIEW/ Nobuo Shimotomai: Russian domestic politics behind Medvedev's island visit
Nobuo Shimotomai (The Asahi Shimbun)
I believe the greatest factor behind Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Kunashiri Island, part of the disputed Northern Territories, is Russian domestic politics.
The nation remains under the dual leadership system of Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Given the circumstances, which of the two will run for president in 2012 is unlikely to be decided until the last moment.
However, work is under way to reform the election system. By visiting the Northern Territories, Medvedev, who is in charge of government, and the presidential office moved one step forward in the race.
Change in China-Russia ties
What served as a catalyst is the dismissal by the president of former Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov in September after 18 years in office. Luzhkov's removal had a similar impact as the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the leader of a newly rising conglomerate who had made anti-government moves, in 2003 by then President Putin.
Also in Japan-Russia relations, up until September, Medvedev had maintained a calm stance in talks with the Japanese side. But then, he caught Japan off-guard by visiting Kunashiri Island. Through the visit, he dispelled his image as a liberal but technical bureaucrat. Also, in public opinion polls conducted by private companies, Medvedev's popularity rose to a level comparable with Putin's.
Second, China-Russia relations are casting a shadow over the Northern Territories issue. China's rise in recent years is also reflected in China-Russia relations, which are far closer than Japan-Russia relations in terms of top-level exchanges.
In particular, 65 years after the end of World War II in 1945, China strongly urged Russia to keep in step with it to commemorate the event on grounds that China's resistance against Japan had a similar historical significance as the Soviet military action in the Far East.
In response, Moscow newly designated Sept. 2, the day when Japan signed the instrument of surrender to the Allied Powers, as the anniversary of the end of World War II.
Furthermore, the rise of nationalism in China and improved China-Taiwan relations also had an impact. Against such a background, the Japan-China territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands spilled over to the Northern Territories problem.
The third point is the deadlock of Japan-Russia relations over the last 10 years or so.
During the 1990s, then Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and Russian President Boris Yeltsin agreed to settle the territorial dispute and conclude a peace treaty by 2000 based on an action plan concerning comprehensive cooperation between the two countries. Unfortunately, the plan never materialized.
In September 2000, then President Putin visited Japan and signaled his intention to settle the dispute by handing over the Habomai group of islets and Shikotan Island. By doing so, the Russian side thought it has tossed the ball into Japan's court.
In response, then Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori called for continued negotiations over the jurisdiction of Kunashiri and Etorofu islands along with the return of the Habomai islets and Shikotan Island. However, the proposal fell apart due to criticism from both sides that it was a demand for the return of Habomai and Shikotan islands before the other two islands. Later, former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi drew up a Japan-Russia action plan to give priority to economic cooperation.
I took part in Japan-Russia Eminent Persons' Council that was set up at the initiative of Koizumi and Putin. The council met on a number of occasions from 2004 to 2006. The Japanese side was chaired by former Prime Minister Mori and the Russian side by then Moscow Mayor Luzhkov. The council comprising intellectuals from both countries exchanged views on what needed to be done to prepare for the solution of the territorial problem.
China and Russia had already solved the bilateral border dispute by dividing the disputed area in half. The "50-50" approach had a bearing on the discussions. While the Aland Islands located between Sweden and Finland are officially part of Finland, they are inhabited by Swedish residents who are granted broad autonomy.
Such an approach was also discussed in unofficial-level talks between Japan and Russia at the time as a possible solution of the Northern Territories problem. The administrations of Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda and Taro Aso also engaged in negotiations for the conclusion of a peace treaty.
Framework of negotiations
However, the situations surrounding the two countries have also changed. In Russia, with economic development, nationalism has grown.
From the Japanese viewpoint, the Russian government under the dual leadership of Medvedev and Putin has made no moves to present a concrete proposal for the settlement of the dispute.
Meanwhile, the Russian side is getting increasingly impatient at Japan's indecisive attitude. Ten years have passed since Moscow presented Tokyo with a proposal to return the Habomai group of islets and Shikotan Island.
But even after the power transfer from the Liberal Democratic Party to the Democratic Party of Japan, Japan remains ambiguous about Russia's proposal, failing to make clear its real position--will it be satisfied with the return of the two islands plus something extra or will it stick to the return of all four at once? Such developments have led to growing discord between the two countries.
Still, I am confident Medvedev firmly stands by the belief that scientific and technological cooperation with Japan and other advanced countries in such areas as information technology, nano-technology and medicine is essential in order to modernize the Russian economy.
Russia is also making clearer its strategy to integrate the economy of the Russian Far East and Siberia with that of East Asia, which is becoming a center of economic growth. In this regard, too, it is indispensable for Russia to maintain cooperation and expand good relations with Japan, an important Asian country.
Be that as it may, to be re-elected, Medvedev also needs to show he is a strong leader. I believe he chose to visit Kunashiri Island even if it means it would have a negative impact on Russia's relationship with Japan.
But we must not see Russia simply as a country that does not follow international law. Following the resolution of its border dispute with China, this year, Russia put an end to its four-decade-long row with Norway over the demarcation of disputed waters by meeting it halfway.
What we need to consider is the question: Will it be useful to continue negotiations for another 10 years in the same way the two countries kept talking for 10 years during the 2000s to no avail? Up to now, Japan and Russia have stood by the agreement to make decisions between them.
But every time delicate territorial negotiations started to show signs of settlement, nationalism at home barred the way and the negotiations broke down because the two countries moved in accordance with the logic of domestic law backed by nationalism. I believe it is time for both Japan and Russia to find the wisdom to re-examine the framework of negotiations.
* * *
Nobuo Shimotomai is professor of comparative politics and Russian politics at Hosei University. After serving as a Seikei University professor, he assumed his current post in 1988. His published works include "Ajia Reisen-shi" (History of Asian cold war).
source: http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201012130353.html
Nobuo Shimotomai (The Asahi Shimbun)
I believe the greatest factor behind Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Kunashiri Island, part of the disputed Northern Territories, is Russian domestic politics.
The nation remains under the dual leadership system of Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Given the circumstances, which of the two will run for president in 2012 is unlikely to be decided until the last moment.
However, work is under way to reform the election system. By visiting the Northern Territories, Medvedev, who is in charge of government, and the presidential office moved one step forward in the race.
Change in China-Russia ties
What served as a catalyst is the dismissal by the president of former Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov in September after 18 years in office. Luzhkov's removal had a similar impact as the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the leader of a newly rising conglomerate who had made anti-government moves, in 2003 by then President Putin.
Also in Japan-Russia relations, up until September, Medvedev had maintained a calm stance in talks with the Japanese side. But then, he caught Japan off-guard by visiting Kunashiri Island. Through the visit, he dispelled his image as a liberal but technical bureaucrat. Also, in public opinion polls conducted by private companies, Medvedev's popularity rose to a level comparable with Putin's.
Second, China-Russia relations are casting a shadow over the Northern Territories issue. China's rise in recent years is also reflected in China-Russia relations, which are far closer than Japan-Russia relations in terms of top-level exchanges.
In particular, 65 years after the end of World War II in 1945, China strongly urged Russia to keep in step with it to commemorate the event on grounds that China's resistance against Japan had a similar historical significance as the Soviet military action in the Far East.
In response, Moscow newly designated Sept. 2, the day when Japan signed the instrument of surrender to the Allied Powers, as the anniversary of the end of World War II.
Furthermore, the rise of nationalism in China and improved China-Taiwan relations also had an impact. Against such a background, the Japan-China territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands spilled over to the Northern Territories problem.
The third point is the deadlock of Japan-Russia relations over the last 10 years or so.
During the 1990s, then Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and Russian President Boris Yeltsin agreed to settle the territorial dispute and conclude a peace treaty by 2000 based on an action plan concerning comprehensive cooperation between the two countries. Unfortunately, the plan never materialized.
In September 2000, then President Putin visited Japan and signaled his intention to settle the dispute by handing over the Habomai group of islets and Shikotan Island. By doing so, the Russian side thought it has tossed the ball into Japan's court.
In response, then Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori called for continued negotiations over the jurisdiction of Kunashiri and Etorofu islands along with the return of the Habomai islets and Shikotan Island. However, the proposal fell apart due to criticism from both sides that it was a demand for the return of Habomai and Shikotan islands before the other two islands. Later, former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi drew up a Japan-Russia action plan to give priority to economic cooperation.
I took part in Japan-Russia Eminent Persons' Council that was set up at the initiative of Koizumi and Putin. The council met on a number of occasions from 2004 to 2006. The Japanese side was chaired by former Prime Minister Mori and the Russian side by then Moscow Mayor Luzhkov. The council comprising intellectuals from both countries exchanged views on what needed to be done to prepare for the solution of the territorial problem.
China and Russia had already solved the bilateral border dispute by dividing the disputed area in half. The "50-50" approach had a bearing on the discussions. While the Aland Islands located between Sweden and Finland are officially part of Finland, they are inhabited by Swedish residents who are granted broad autonomy.
Such an approach was also discussed in unofficial-level talks between Japan and Russia at the time as a possible solution of the Northern Territories problem. The administrations of Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda and Taro Aso also engaged in negotiations for the conclusion of a peace treaty.
Framework of negotiations
However, the situations surrounding the two countries have also changed. In Russia, with economic development, nationalism has grown.
From the Japanese viewpoint, the Russian government under the dual leadership of Medvedev and Putin has made no moves to present a concrete proposal for the settlement of the dispute.
Meanwhile, the Russian side is getting increasingly impatient at Japan's indecisive attitude. Ten years have passed since Moscow presented Tokyo with a proposal to return the Habomai group of islets and Shikotan Island.
But even after the power transfer from the Liberal Democratic Party to the Democratic Party of Japan, Japan remains ambiguous about Russia's proposal, failing to make clear its real position--will it be satisfied with the return of the two islands plus something extra or will it stick to the return of all four at once? Such developments have led to growing discord between the two countries.
Still, I am confident Medvedev firmly stands by the belief that scientific and technological cooperation with Japan and other advanced countries in such areas as information technology, nano-technology and medicine is essential in order to modernize the Russian economy.
Russia is also making clearer its strategy to integrate the economy of the Russian Far East and Siberia with that of East Asia, which is becoming a center of economic growth. In this regard, too, it is indispensable for Russia to maintain cooperation and expand good relations with Japan, an important Asian country.
Be that as it may, to be re-elected, Medvedev also needs to show he is a strong leader. I believe he chose to visit Kunashiri Island even if it means it would have a negative impact on Russia's relationship with Japan.
But we must not see Russia simply as a country that does not follow international law. Following the resolution of its border dispute with China, this year, Russia put an end to its four-decade-long row with Norway over the demarcation of disputed waters by meeting it halfway.
What we need to consider is the question: Will it be useful to continue negotiations for another 10 years in the same way the two countries kept talking for 10 years during the 2000s to no avail? Up to now, Japan and Russia have stood by the agreement to make decisions between them.
But every time delicate territorial negotiations started to show signs of settlement, nationalism at home barred the way and the negotiations broke down because the two countries moved in accordance with the logic of domestic law backed by nationalism. I believe it is time for both Japan and Russia to find the wisdom to re-examine the framework of negotiations.
* * *
Nobuo Shimotomai is professor of comparative politics and Russian politics at Hosei University. After serving as a Seikei University professor, he assumed his current post in 1988. His published works include "Ajia Reisen-shi" (History of Asian cold war).
source: http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201012130353.html
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